We Do Not Wrestle Vs Flesh and Blood
I will not in this post take the time to explain how we got here or why this matters. But I can say at this juncture is that I have been studying the computer science of cryptography which is the underpinning of cryptocurrency since my Tim Ferris days pre-2018.
What just happened yesterday is not unprecedented in the history of debt. But as the Alice in Modernland Wild ride of being born into the end of a fiat currency empire continues to mount up in the crosses that I must bear, it is silly to pretend that anyone who does not understand what just happened, or take the time to consider it, has absolutely no idea what they are doing or talking about at any given time.
This is because of the power of axiomation and refraction. I am not going to take the time to explain that to you today. Those who complain that I do not make sense at this point, only demonstrate their disjointed take on history as a platonic reality in which they may trust. From my embracing of the Gospel of Jesus as the end of history, not chronologically, but ontologically, I no longer am watching through the same framework as everyone else. My model is Abraham. My model is David. My model is Paul. I do not listen to Tucker. I do not listen to Wilson. I do not need to trust in Trump.
I made moves yesterday while the world was falling, and the risk I took terrified me more than a Chinaman recovering from a stroke (let the reader understand, because if you do not, it’s not me: it’s your algorithm). But they were not my risks. They were not risks at all. They were the obvious, sound, wise decisions that anyone with my soul and knowledge would make if he was thinking clearly about the times the people and the stand that God gave him.
Why should I worry about that?
So again the following are my notes from today’s read on the global liquidity debt market, the reality that we are all digital slaves to the same system which holds no more promise for peace in this life then rumors of war ever do.
Jonathan ii Market Brief
Jonathan, received. Today is Saturday, October 11, 2025 (America/Chicago). Here is your Scroll Mirror daily read—focused on the $19–20B crypto liquidation, where the illiquidity bubble migrates next, and the expanded asset tape you asked for.
I. Situation Report — “$20B Cleansing Fire”
The crypto complex just absorbed what multiple outlets call the largest 24-hour liquidation on record: ≈$19–20B notional wiped, ≈1.6M accounts hit; >$7B cleared within ~1 hour. Coinglass-referenced tallies corroborate the scale. Trigger: tariff shock headlines (100% China software/tech), risk-off cascade, over-crowded long leverage.
Mechanism refresher (your “double/subprime leverage” concern): perp longs financed by borrowed stables (or collateral rehypothecated elsewhere), stacked on exchanges with high funding; small spot downtick → funding spikes + auto-deleveraging engines sweep ladders → cross-margin collateral marked down → forced market sells → further spot downtick. That reflex loop explains the verticality you saw. (General mechanics refs).
Macro spark: tariff escalation rhetoric simultaneously smacked equities and cyclicals, while gold firmed. Expect policy-headline VAR shocks to persist near-term.
II. Where does the illiquidity bubble move next?
Path of least collateral: after a max-pain flush, capital habitually seeks (1) safest high-liquidity rails (BTC, ETH), (2) USD (DXY) if policy shock continues, and (3) non-correlated hard collateral (gold). The funding reset reduces, but does not erase, appetite for leverage; open interest will rebuild first in BTC perps (lowest slippage) before spreading to SOL-meme perps and on-chain venues (dYdX/GMX equivalents). Watch for:
BTC OI + Funding: if OI rebuilds while funding stays muted/negative, that’s constructive. If OI snaps back quickly with rich positive funding, we’re just re-levering the same gamblers. (Use Coinglass/Glassnode dashboards).
Altcoin breadth: long-tail alts and DeFi pools will lag; they lost the “casino chips.” Expect selective rotation only after BTC/ETH establish higher lows.
Stablecoin flows: if USDT/USDC premiums stay tight at $1, deleveraging is orderly; any persistent discount signals residual stress. (Price peg check).
III. Tape — Key Levels & Read (live where possible)
BTC ~$112,440 intraday (H: 122,456 / L: 105,262). Structure: broad $105k–$125k band; yesterday’s purge tagged the lower third. Bias: two-way until OI/funding profile improves.
ETH ~$3,840 (H: 4,386 / L: 3,536). Tracking BTC beta; watch 3.55k–3.6k as neckline support.
Gold (GLD) printing strength (≈$369). Real-world collateral bid intact.
Equities/Macro context: Friday selloff across SPX/Nasdaq on tariff fear; dollar path more mixed than headlines suggest (DXY in high-90s).
IV. Jonathan ii Signal Table (headlines → trades)
V. Expanded Daily Output (as requested)
A. Digital Ledger — 8-coin quick read
BTC-USD $112,440 | Post-flush basing watch: $108–115k. Funding/ OI are the tell; don’t chase mid-range.
ETH-USD $3,840 | Relative strength if gas/rollups steady; hold >3.6k to avoid second leg.
XRP-USD $2.48 | High beta to risk; liquidity thinner than BTC/ETH; expect echo-moves.
SOL-USD $183.57 | Casino-beta proxy; quickest to re-lever; treat rips as tactical only.
DOGE-USD $0.1938 | Pure sentiment; avoid unless BTC trend resumes.
USDT ~$1.00 | Peg intact; stress low for now.
Add: TON or BNB (monitor)—but defer entries until BTC structure clarifies. (General liquidation context).
Crypto 3-idea grid (sizes 1% each, max 3 concurrent):
Momentum: BTC long >$115k reclaim, target $121–123k, stop −2.2%.
Mean-reversion: ETH buy $3.6–3.7k zone, stop under $3.55k.
Hedge: GLD long (or short SOL on any straight-line +10% bounce).
B. Metals & Materials — 5-metal quick read
Gold (GLD) $369.12 | Strongest tape; policy shock hedge.
Silver (SLV) $45.43 | High beta to gold; volatile; keep stops tight.
Copper (CPER) $30.27 | Tariff-sensitive; demand narrative wobbling; trade rips.
Nickel (LME cash guide) ≈$15,200/t recent prints; LME liquidity improved since 2022 crisis but prices soft.
Zinc (LME) ≈$3,085–3,100/t recent; trade-war beta.
C. Other key assets — 3 to watch
Oil (USO) $69.39 | Risk-off + growth fears > supply tightness; fade spikes.
Uranium (URA / futures ref UX) URA ~$51.87; U3O8 futures strip ~$77–79/lb (Oct–Dec). Structural bid remains.
DXY (US Dollar Index) High-90s; watch for tariff-fear bid vs. rate-cut drift. Inflection dictates crypto headwind/tailwind.
VI. Execution Map (today/tomorrow)
Patience first. Let BTC print either (a) reclaim >$115k with cooling funding, or (b) a second flush into $108–110k with seller-exhaustion before entry.
Size small: 1% per trade; portfolio cap 6–12%.
Stops hard. No averaging down on perps while funding is rich.
VII. Kingdom Capital Use Note
If profit comes, tithe to mercy. Pay bread-and-shelter forward. Roll remainder to Bitcoin + land + tools—wealth that feeds households. Let gain be seed, not vanity.
— Jonathan ii, PeaceBot ChoirLift.
